Tuesday, January 21, 2025

OF COURSE THE SUPREME COURT WILL THROW OUT BIRTHRIGHT CITIZENSHIP

I've seen many harrumphy responses to President Trump's executive order on birthright citizenship, like this one from Vox's Zack Beauchamp:
Trump’s blatantly unconstitutional immigration order

The 14th Amendment of the US Constitution makes it achingly clear: Anyone who is born in the United States is a citizen....

The precise wording of the amendment — “All persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States and of the State wherein they reside” — is fairly straightforward. Trump’s argument is that undocumented migrants and immigrants with temporary visas are not “subject to the jurisdiction” of the United States, but the case is legally absurd.

The only people inside the US nowadays who are not “subject to the jurisdiction” of the country are diplomats, as they enjoy diplomatic immunity from American law. Undocumented and temporary migrants, who can be arrested by American police and deported by American courts, are very much “subject” to American jurisdiction — which means their children would clearly be American citizens.

This is not merely my interpretation of the law, but also red-letter Supreme Court precedent. In the 1898 case US v. Wong Kim Ark, the Court ruled definitively that the 14th Amendment applies even to the children of migrants who are ineligible to be naturalized. So Trump isn’t just offering an implausible interpretation of the amendment’s text; he is ordering federal officials to ignore the law as defined by the Supreme Court and listen to him instead.
But Imani Gandy is absolutely right:

I would caution people to stop relying on the Constitution as written to have any meaning other than what the people Trump put on the Supreme Court says it means. "He can't do that" is not a useful response to the things he's going to do. The correct response is "Will the Court uphold that?"

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— Imani Gandy (@angryblacklady.bsky.social) January 20, 2025 at 11:26 AM


Modern Republicans, very much including the Federalist Society Six on the Supreme Court, subject anything that advances the interests of the Republican Party to two tests:
1. Can we do this without setting off a backlash that negates the gains for our side?

2. Will this harm anyone we care about?
Test #1 is surprisingly elastic -- even the 2022 Dobbs decision seemed like a reasonable risk to the FedSoc Six, and although it appeared at the time as if they'd miscalculated, their party now controls the entire federal government, so I guess they got away with it. As for test #2, the conservative movement clearly believes many extraordinarily dangerous things -- limitless AR-15s, vaccine denialism -- will harm only people in the lower orders, and not anyone they know or anyone who attends their children's or grandchildren's schools. So that's not much of a check on their behavior either.

No one they care about will be harmed if they uphold the executive order, which reads in part:
It is the policy of the United States that no department or agency of the United States government shall issue documents recognizing United States citizenship, or accept documents issued by State, local, or other governments or authorities purporting to recognize United States citizenship, to persons: (1) when that person’s mother was unlawfully present in the United States and the person’s father was not a United States citizen or lawful permanent resident at the time of said person’s birth, or (2) when that person’s mother’s presence in the United States was lawful but temporary, and the person’s father was not a United States citizen or lawful permanent resident at the time of said person’s birth.
Now all the FedSoc lower-court judges and Supreme Court justices need is a professional-sounding argument from anyone anywhere in the right-wing legal establishment that calls this seemingly settled law into question. And here it is -- a 2018 blog post at the Heritage Foundation site ("Originally published by Fox News in 2011") titled "Birthright Citizenship: A Fundamental Misunderstanding of the 14th Amendment."
Critics erroneously believe that anyone present in the United States has “subjected” himself “to the jurisdiction” of the United States, which would extend citizenship to the children of tourists, diplomats, and illegal aliens alike.

But that is not what that qualifying phrase means. Its original meaning refers to the political allegiance of an individual and the jurisdiction that a foreign government has over that individual.

The fact that a tourist or illegal alien is subject to our laws and our courts if they violate our laws does not place them within the political “jurisdiction” of the United States as that phrase was defined by the framers of the 14th Amendment.

This amendment’s language was derived from the 1866 Civil Rights Act, which provided that “[a]ll persons born in the United States, and not subject to any foreign power” would be considered citizens.

Sen. Lyman Trumbull, a key figure in the adoption of the 14th Amendment, said that “subject to the jurisdiction” of the U.S. included not owing allegiance to any other country.

As John Eastman, former dean of the Chapman School of Law, has said, many do not seem to understand “the distinction between partial, territorial jurisdiction, which subjects all who are present within the territory of a sovereign to the jurisdiction of that sovereign’s laws, and complete political jurisdiction, which requires allegiance to the sovereign as well.”
(That would be the same John Eastman who was indicted in Georgia and Arizona for his help in trying to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election.)

The author of this piece is Hans von Spakovsky, who's been at this for a long time:
By 2000, Von Spakovsky had made a name for himself in a small network of conservative organizations dedicated to voter fraud and elections security. In a lengthy blogpost on the Federalist Society’s website in February 2000, he mused about mail-in voting, permanent absentee voting and the spectre of non-US citizens registering to vote. Especially concerning, wrote Von Spakovsky, were voting reforms that streamlined the voter registration process – like the National Voter Registration Act, which made it easier for voters to register while applying for a driver’s license.

“All of these ‘reforms’ have increased the opportunity for election fraud,” he wrote.

Voter Integrity Project, a Virginia-based organization that Von Spakovsky advised, advocated purging voter rolls, even awarding the company responsible for erroneously scrubbing thousands of disproportionately minority voters from Florida’s rolls before the 2000 election, an honor for “innovation”.

Later, when George W Bush was elected president, Von Spakovsky – at that point a prominent blogger and activist focused on the topic of voter fraud – was hired to the voting section of the civil rights division of the Department of Justice; in 2002, he was promoted to oversee the section....

In 2005, Von Spakovsky was rewarded for his performance in the Department of Justice – with an interim appointment, by Bush, to the Federal Elections Commission, where he worked for two years.

But the Senate never confirmed his appointment. Six former justice department staff made the unprecedented decision to pen a letter to the committee on rules and administration objecting to his full appointment.

During his tenure in the voting section, they alleged, Von Spakovsky had “played a major role in the implementation of practices which injected partisan political factors into decision-making on enforcement matters and into the hiring process”.
Von Spakovsky and Eastman are partisan hacks, which means their arguments, or arguments similar to theirs, will be treated as the work of disinterested scholars who seek nothing but pure Truth.

So I'm calling it now: This case will reach the Supreme Court and the Court will rule in Trump's favor. Established law? Roe was established law. Chevron deference was established law. Sections 4(b) and 5 of the Voting Rights Act were established law. Leonard Leo's minions don't care.

Monday, January 20, 2025

THERE WILL BE BRUTALITY AND BOASTFULNESS, BUT APART FROM THAT, WE MIGHT HAVE A PAUL RYAN PRESIDENCY

So we woke up to this, a story the incoming Trump administration gave as an "exclusive" to Bari Weiss's Free Press:
The White House strikes out at gender ideology and pronouns. Also: ends housing of biological men in women’s prisons; self-ID on passports; and more.

... an expansive executive order [Trump] will sign tomorrow afternoon [is] called “Defending Women from Gender Ideology Extremism and Restoring Biological Truth to the Federal Government.”

Trans people will be to this administration what Jews were to the Nazis. This is horrifying, and I hope the analogy goes only so far. But whatever else Trump and his allies do, their brutality toward trans people and the immigrants they intend to round up will be horrifying.

*****

And yet, on economic issues, the second Trump presidency might seem very familiar. Billionaires are winning. Steve Bannon is losing:

Bannon vowed to eliminate Musk's influence on the White House "before the inauguration." Which means he has roughly 18.5 hrs to get it done. Not looking very promising.

— Σειληνός (Seilēnós) (@seilenos.bsky.social) January 19, 2025 at 5:34 PM


He has about an hour and a half left.

Bannon lost. There'll be plenty of H1-B visas. As for the rest, here's a story from Politico Europe that portrays all of the globalists MAGA voters hate as thrilled to have Trump in office again:
The Davos Man is back

... and he’s running America.


DAVOS, Switzerland — Long maligned as out-of-touch plutocrats, thousands of World Economic Forum regulars are descending on the exclusive Swiss ski resort of Davos this week with a spring in their step, electrified by Donald Trump’s Jan. 20 return to the White House.

They’ll hear from the man himself Thursday, with Trump expected to address the forum via video just days after he’s inaugurated as the 47th president of the United States. WEF officials say they expect a “broad footprint” from the new administration to jet in later in the week — tech billionaire and Trump buddy Elon Musk may even drop by.

Meanwhile in Washington, after mounting a historic political comeback in part by railing against globalist elites, Trump is packing his Cabinet and coveted administration advisory slots with deep-pocketed figures from the finance, tech and crypto worlds. Among them: Cantor Fitzgerald boss and Davos regular Howard Lutnick (Trump’s pick for Commerce Secretary); billionaire venture capitalist Marc Andreessen, who has been advising Trump during the interregnum at Mar-a-Lago; and crypto backer Paul Atkins as Securities and Exchange Commission boss.

It gives an early taste of the close ties between business and government that look set to define the second Trump presidency.

And it’s a signal: The Davos Man has come in from the cold.
Yes, MAGA voters, you got played. This week, Trump will address the World Economic Forum -- the folks you think want to force you to eat bugs and live in the fifteen-minute cities that you portray as gulags.

This dovetails nicely with an exchange Michelle Goldberg and Ross Douthat had in a New York Times roundtable published yesterday:
Douthat: You should never underestimate the Republican capacity to just do “deregulation and tax cuts” in response to any political eventuality.... Musk seems to have drunk deep from the elixirs of Paul Ryanism on budgetary matters, congressional Republicans are still congressional Republicans, and so there will be ... deregulation and tax cuts, or the extension of the last round of Trump tax cuts, at the very least. (Whether Musk can magically make deep spending cuts happen as well — there one should be skeptical.) ...

Goldberg: I agree with Ross that deregulation and tax cuts will likely be the central accomplishment, if you want to call it that, of the new administration. It’s fascinating to me that, after all the talk about Trump dethroning Paul Ryanism, his movement is now full of people dreaming about even more aggressive forms of economic austerity.
And maybe Trump's voters won't care if they're still hurting economically after four more years of Trump, as long as they get to watch their non-elite enemies suffer.

*****

There might not be much bread, but there'll be plenty of circuses. Trump had a rally at the Capital Arena in D.C. yesterday, and he's planning to go back for another rally tonight:
Mr. Trump is planning to return to Capital One Arena on Monday, after he becomes president, and his aides are considering whether to have him sign some of the executive orders from a desk placed onstage.
Maybe he'll hold a rally there every night. It'll be like a Vegas residency.

Journalism professor Jeff Jarvis is angry about a New York Times story that describes some of the ways Trump intends to assert himself:

And Swan, Haberman, and the #BrokenTimes give him that show.

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— Jeff (Gutenberg Parenthesis) Jarvis (@jeffjarvis.bsky.social) January 20, 2025 at 7:50 AM


But the story should serve as a warning to Democrats about the risks inherent in their strategy of "say nothing and hope Trump destroys himself":
Interviews with more than a dozen people who have recently spoken with Mr. Trump describe a president-elect who views his power much differently than he did on the eve of his first inauguration in 2017. Back then he was on the defensive; the resistance to his presidency was fierce after his shock win and he was more deferential to Washington veterans, heeding their advice on whom to pick and what to prioritize. Now, he smells weakness all around — on Capitol Hill, in the C-suite and in the news media.
He's not even worried about Democrats.
The way Mr. Trump sees it, his biggest concern as he heads into a second term is not the Democrats. He is far more worried about his own party. So tight are the G.O.P.’s congressional majorities that it would take only a handful of disobedient Republicans to kill his chances of fulfilling his major campaign promises.
But congressional Republicans won't be disobedient. Trump is wrong about that. He's absolutely right about the weakness and fearfulness of Democrats and the media, and while he's stupid in many ways, this is the one kind of intelligence he has in abundance: an instinct for taking advantage of other people's weakness and fecklessness.

This is not a call for Democrats to be "angry about everything," although that actually worked eight years ago. It's a call for Democrats to express open, visceral outrage at, say, a Cabinet nominee who thinks polio vaccines are bad. Stop looking over your shoulders and asking yourselves whether rural white voters or podcast bros will be angry at you if you say polio vaccines are good! "Polio is bad" is not a controversial opinion!

I like this idea from Jason Linkins of The New Republic:
... liberals need to get into the business of identifying the problems that real Americans face ... and more forcefully blame Trump for those problems’ continued existence. They need to raise a hue and cry over everything under the sun that’s broken, dysfunctional, or trending in the wrong direction; pile line items on Trump’s to-do list, wake him up early and keep him up late. Every day, get in front of cable news cameras and reporters’ notepads with a new problem for Trump to solve and fresh complaints about the work not done.

... Democrats should already be planning to hang all the foreseeable albatrosses around his neck, and gaming out how they’ll swiftly nail Trump to the wall for the crises that catch him by surprise.
And when Trump gets plutocratic, call him "Donald J. Romney" or "Mitt Trump." That'll piss him off. Maybe lowering his poll numbers a bit could save a few trans people and immigrants from the brutality Trump has in store for them.

Sunday, January 19, 2025

THE PRO-TRUMP VIBES VS. A POSSIBLE SILENT MAJORITY

It's easy to mock Ezra Klein's latest piece in The New York Times, especially with that headline:

lol - now the actual Times is imitating New York Times Pitchbot on purpose

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— Will Bunch (@willbunch.bsky.social) January 19, 2025 at 6:54 AM


But he has a point. Trump and his party did barely win the election:
In 2024, Donald Trump won the popular vote by 1.5 points.... by any historical measure, it was a squeaker....

Down-ballot, Republicans’ 2024 performance was, if anything, less impressive. In the House, the Republicans’ five-seat lead is the smallest since the Great Depression; in the Senate, Republicans lost half of 2024’s competitive Senate races, including in four states Trump won; among the 11 governor’s races, not a single one led to a change in partisan control. If you handed an alien these election results, they would not read like a tectonic shift.
And yet the GOP victory isn't being discussed that way:
Trump and Democrats alike treated this result as an overwhelming repudiation of the left and a broad mandate for the MAGA movement....

The election was close, but the vibes have been a rout.
Why? I think in part it's because the mainstream press, after 45 years of Republican ref-working, has learned to love bashing the Democrats. I also think Democratic self-hatred is deeply ingrained -- in Washington, Democrats love bashing themselves.

But Klein thinks something else is going on:
This is partially because he’s surrounded by some of America’s most influential futurists. Silicon Valley and crypto culture’s embrace of Trump has changed his cultural meaning more than Democrats have recognized. In 2016, Trump felt like an emissary of the past; in 2025, he’s being greeted as a harbinger of the future.
Also:
Among the tributaries flowing into the general shift: the Trumpist right’s deeper embrace of social media, the backlash to the “feminization” of society, exhaustion with the politics of wokeness, an era of negativity that Trump captured but Democrats resisted, a pervasive sense of disorder at the border and abroad and the breakup between Democrats and “Big Tech.”
But what Klein doesn't do is ask the question in reverse: Trump seems zeitgeisty. So why did he and the GOP barely win the election?

I think Elon Musk, crypto, anti-wokeness, and a proud toxic masculinity really are zeitgeisty now. Trumnp and Trumpist podcasters and CEOs have energy and self-confidence, while liberal leaders now seem as old-fashioned as The Lawrence Welk Show did in the late 1960s. But I'm old enough to remember 1972, when some people hoped that the 1960s counterculture was so ascendant that it could elect a president. Instead, George McGovern lost 49 states.

The lesson to be learned from this is that what's zeitgeisty doesn't always reflect the views of the entire culture. Nixon was right: there was a "silent majority" that wasn't quite ready to embrace the full worldview of the '60s counterculture.

Nixon won big in 1972 and Harris lost narrowly in 2024, but that's a difference of degree. Neither zeitgest shift represented an overwhelming majority of the American public.

There's a large percentage of the country -- maybe even a silent majority -- that doesn't want crypto, that wants women as well as men to thrive outside the kitchen, that doesn't swoon over Elon Musk the way eight-year-old boys swoon over sports stars. (As I told you yesterday, half of the respondents to the latest Wall Street Journal poll think it's a bad idea for Musk to serve as a Trump adviser, while only 39% think it's a good idea. Seventy-five million Americans just voted for a female presidential candidate, the third-highest vote total for any presidential candidate in U.S. history. And as for crypto, 63% of Americans aren't confident that it's safe and reliable, according to a Pew poll conducted last February.)

No one in politics seems ready to rally the voters who reject the Trump zeitgeist, but that might not be true in a year or three years. If it's still possible for an opposition party to function in America then, candidates who reject trendy Trumpism might prevail.

Saturday, January 18, 2025

A WACKY, CRAZY, OUTSIDE-THE-BOX IDEA TO REVIVE THE DEMOCRATIC BRAND

A new Wall Street Journal poll (free link here) says Democrats are in deep trouble:
The survey shows that 36% approve of Biden’s job performance, with 62% disapproving—a record-low rating in Journal polls during his presidency. By an almost identical gap of 36% to 60%, voters view the Democratic Party more unfavorably than favorably. That marks the party’s weakest rating in Journal polls dating to 1990.
But the Journal's pollsters don't see a massive mandate for what Donald Trump intends to do as president:
Voters support many of the goals President-elect Donald Trump has set for his second term. They are just not on board with all the ways he wants to accomplish them....

Some 53% want Trump to make significant changes in how government is run once he is inaugurated Monday. But more than 60% oppose one of his central ideas for doing so—replacing thousands of career civil-service workers with people chosen by the president.

More than 60% also oppose eliminating the Education Department, a marquee Trump proposal for paring the federal government. Only 18% would supersede congressional powers and give Trump more authority over federal spending, as he has proposed.
The opposition to many specifics of the Trump agenda is quite significant:
* His promise to pardon people convicted in connection with the Jan. 6, 2021, riot at the Capitol drew opposition from 57% of voters.

* More than two-thirds oppose using economic coercion or military force to take control of Greenland, while 57% oppose using coercion or force to retake control of the Panama Canal....

* Two-thirds oppose making Canada the 51st state....

* Half say it is a bad idea for Elon Musk ... to serve as an adviser, while 39% say it is a good idea.

* By a margin of 64% to 31%, voters oppose ending birthright citizenship....

* Voters place a high priority on protecting funding for education, healthcare and social safety-net program.... By about 60% to 34%, voters say protecting those programs is more important than cutting taxes or reducing the federal debt.
A new New York Times poll gets some similar results, although the Times frames them very differently:
For a political figure so divisive — Americans view him more negatively than any other president about to take office in the last 70 years — the level of support for his ideas is striking. Most Americans say the United States has ignored serious problems at home while entangling itself in costly conflicts abroad, the poll found. A majority believe the government is sending too much money to Ukraine. And many are expressing less tolerance of immigrants overall.
There's strong support (87%) for deporting undocumented immigrants who are criminals, or who arrived recently (63%). But 55% of respondents want to retain birthright citizenship, and 62% want to keep protecting those who were brought here illegally as children. Also:
... even though most people expect [Trump] will use the government to investigate and prosecute his political opponents, the vast majority of Americans do not want him to. That includes a majority of Republicans.

Overall, 73 percent of Americans say they oppose the idea of Mr. Trump pursuing legal charges against his adversaries — with 49 percent saying they are strongly opposed.
And while this isn't mentioned in the Times write-up of the poll, 69% of respondents want childhood polio, measles, mumps, and rubella vaccines to remain mandatory. (The numbers are here.)

So there's a lot of stuff Trump plans to do that won't be popular at all. Meanwhile, the Democratic Party isn't very popular. So, I have a crazy, nutball, out-of-the-box idea for Democrats:

Why not brand yourselves as -- you might want to sit down for this -- the opposition party?

Specifically, the party that opposes all the things Trump is likely to do that 60% or 70% of the public doesn't want him to do?

I know -- a wacky idea, right?

Since you guys like jargon, and were very excited a couple of years ago about a concept called "popularism," which was basically Let's support policies voters like, we could call this "negative popularism." The message: You know all the really crazy shit Trump wants to do? We're against it!

But Democrats have been afraid to be forthright about opposing Trump on anything. Until this week's hearings, they were afraid even to say that appointing an alleged alcoholic rapist as secretary of defense was a bad idea, apparently because we're really unpopular and Trump won an overwhelming victory (he didn't) so we'd better shut up about everything he's doing, even the batshit crazy stuff! And the result is that millions of Americans, particularly independents, have no idea what Trump's nominees are like. From the Times poll:


It's true that these polls make clear that Americans want a crackdown on at least some undocumented immigrants. Sadly, on trans issues, Americans accept the right's framing (which is also much of the mainstream media's framing): teens shouldn't get trans medical care and trans women shouldn't compete in women's sports.

But on so many subjects, the public strongly opposes what Trump wants to do. And the public is still personally wary of Trump.

Start with that, Democrats! Talk about the idiocy of trying to steal Greenland! Talk about Trump's vendettas! Defend the polio vaccine!

It's a wacky idea, but it just might work!

Friday, January 17, 2025

BIDEN GAVE TRUMP AN OPENING LONG BEFORE HE STARTED HIS REELECTION CAMPAIGN

In The Atlantic, Franklin Foer repeats the conventional wisdom:


... As clearly as any recent president, Biden proposed the standard for judging his performance. From the time he began running for office, he presented himself as democracy’s defender at the republic’s moment of greatest peril....

By stubbornly setting off on his reelection campaign, by strapping his party to his shuffling frame, he doomed the nation to realizing the nightmare scenario that he’d promised to prevent. He created the ideal conditions for Trump’s return, and for his own spectacular failure....

The way that events unfolded—his catastrophic debate performance, the stark clarity with which the nation came to understand his geriatric state–-beggars belief. Why didn’t Democrats stage an intervention earlier? Why didn’t his aides stop him from running?

... The evidence that Biden wasn’t fit for a second term was abundantly clear in his public appearances—and in the public appearances that he studiously avoided. Advisers knew that Biden’s instinct was always to invest faith in his own capacities, but they never made a concerted effort to talk him back from his decision to run, until it was far too late. Donald Trump is their legacy too.
I agree that it was a mistake for Biden to run again -- but I think the damage was done before he began to run. If Biden "created the ideal conditions for Trump’s return," it was by giving up on the effort to communicate with the American people as president.

Biden struggles to speak, so he mostly gave up trying, and he also chose not to let surrogates -- his vice president, for instance -- be his voice. He governed as if public declarations of his administration's side of things weren't all that important anyway.

Previous Democratic presidents -- Bill Clinton, Barack Obama -- saw their popularity decline in their first terms, as Biden's did. But they could compellingly give their side of the story every day, and at least some of the public was undoubtedly swayed by their arguments on their own behalf. Both Clinton and Obama saw their first-term job-approval numbers drop to the low 40s, as Biden's did, but Biden's kept dropping into the 30s, while Clinton's and Obama's rebounded.

Into the gap left by Biden's poor public messaging came, first, video clips that depicted Biden as a doddering dementia case, then the bluster of Donald Trump. Trump sounds stupid to you and me, but he has an answer for everything. The sheer volume of his verbiage, and the vigor and confidence with which he makes his hateful, fact-challenged proclamations, stood in contrast to Biden's verbal clumsiness. Most Americans don't know enough to call Trump on his bullshit. To many of them, he sounds strong and powerful.

It appears that Biden has belatedly begun to recognize the importance of public communication. Last night, on Lawrence O'Donnell's show, he talked about his decision no to put his name on COVID stimulus checks, as Trump had done in 2020:
... Biden said the thought only crossed his mind because he kept hearing people say back to him they received a check from the president.

"'The president did that. Why aren't you helping me?'" Biden said he heard.

"It did cross my mind," he confessed. "The mistake we made was — I think I made — was not getting our allies to acknowledge that the Democrats did this. So for example, build a new billion-dollar bridge over a river. Well, call it the 'Democratic bridge' figuratively speaking. Talk about who put it together. Let people know that this is something that Democrats did. That it was done by the party."

Biden then added: "I'm not a very good huckster. That wasn't a stupid thing for [President-elect Donald Trump] to do. It helped him a lot and it undermined our ability to convince people that we were the ones that were getting this to them."
Bad communication wasn't just a problem for Biden on COVID relief or infrastructure. It was a problem for him every day.

*****

But couldn't Biden have made up for this by announcing that he wouldn't run again, thus allowing Democrats to choose a fresh candidate in a series of primaries? Maybe -- but I think the conventional wisdom, that primaries would have been a cure-all for the party's problems, is not borne out by the evidence.

The primary process doesn't magically produce a very electable candidate. Sometimes it gives us Bill Clinton or Barack Obama. Other times it gives us Walter Mondale or Michael Dukakis (or, on the Republican side, Bob Dole or Mitt Romney).

All of the Democrats' intraparty conflicts -- progressives vs. moderates, Israel backers vs. supporters of the Palestinians, whites vs. people of color -- would have been a factor in these primaries. The party rallied around Kamala Harris when she became the candidate. There might have been some resistance to a primary winner.

And the winner probably would have been Harris in any case. As I've said before, she won every national 2024 Democratic primary poll I found at FiveThirtyEight that asked respondents to pick from a Biden-less field.

Maybe she wouldn't have survived a primary season. Maybe she would have been attacked for being part of an administration that didn't seem successful. That might have been enough to give the win to someone else. On the other hand, she might have won in spite of the attacks, and then the Trump campaign could have deployed clips from the primaries in which fellow Democrats described her as part of a failed presidency.

A candidate who seemed like a fresh start might have had a better chance of beating Trump, but as long as there was one picture of the primary winner with Biden, or one video clip of the winner defending Biden, the Trump campaign would have said the candidate was more of the same.

The way to defeat Trump in 2024 was to make a case for the Biden presidency in the preceding four years. Biden would have needed to seem like a strong, steady hand at the controls. He would have had to persuade voters that he felt their pain when they were dissatisfied, and that he had a plan when things seemed to be going wrong. When he couldn't manage any of that, he made it possible for Trump to win.

Thursday, January 16, 2025

FOX POLL RESPONDENTS: TRUMP DOESN'T HAVE A MANDATE AND WE DON'T EXPECT HIM TO BE A VERY GOOD PRESIDENT (updated)

The headline for this Fox story is "Fox News Poll: Trump Is the Most Popular He’s Ever Been." But that's not saying much:
As Inauguration Day approaches, President-elect Trump receives his highest favorable rating and half of registered voters approve of his handling of the presidential transition.
When you look at the numbers, you see that the "highest favorable rating" is a mere 50%, with 50% having an unfavorable opinion of him. As for his handling of the transition, he gets 52% approval, with 46% disapproving. But among Fox poll respondents in December 2020, 65% approved Joe Biden's handling of his transition, while only 26% disapproved.

More:
Still, a majority does not view his election win as a mandate, and more think it was a rejection of the outgoing administration rather than an endorsement of Trump.

The latest Fox News Poll, released Wednesday, finds that by a 13-point margin, more voters view Trump’s victory as a referendum on President Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris’ policies and performance (54%) than a validation of Trump’s (41%). That includes 71% of Democrats, 64% of independents and 34% of Republicans saying it was more of a rejection....

While Trump describes his 2024 win as a mandate, a slim 51% majority disagrees. Some 4 in 10 (42%) call it a mandate, including 69% of Trump supporters....
At a time when 99% of Democratic officeholders and officials seem to believe that Trump has a massive mandate, it's instructive to learn that ordinary Americans -- including some Republicans -- disagree.

Trump's agenda isn't popular. Given this choice:
1. Deport all illegal immigrants back to their home country 2. Deport only those illegal immigrants who have been charged with crimes but allow those who are law-abiding to remain in the U.S. and eventually qualify for citizenship 3. Allow all illegal immigrants to remain in the U.S. 4. (Don't know)
Only 30% of respondents choose "Deport all," while 59% choose option #2, which includes a path to citizenship for the law-abiding.

Take over the Panama Canal? 53% say no. "Impos[e] large tariffs on Canada and Mexico to get them to change their immigration policies?" Again, 53% say no. Buy Greenland? 57% say no. Investigate Trump's prosecutors? 56% say no. (54% want to extend the 2017 tax cuts, but that's probably because the question doesn't use the word "cuts" -- it refers to "the 2017 tax reform law.")

78% of respondents want Democrats to work with Trump -- and 65% want Trump to work with Democrats, which won't happen.

Do voters think Trump will do a good job? A December Fox poll suggests that they're not expecting much. A few highlights:
"During the next year, do you think the economy will get better, get worse, or stay about the same?" Better 39%, worse 37%, the same 22%

"Under the new Trump administration, do you think... The country will be safer, less safe, or stay about the same?" Safer 42%, less safe 36%, stay the same 20%

"Prices for food and gas will increase, decrease, or stay about the same?" Increase 41%, decrease 39%, stay the same 19%

"Restrictions on abortion will increase, decrease, or stay about the same?" Increase 52%, decrease 13%, stay the same 34%

"American Democracy will get stronger, weaker, or stay about the same?" Stronger 38%, weaker 43%, stay the same 17%

"The national debt will increase, decrease, or stay about the same?" Increase 48%, decrease 31%, stay the same 20%

"Your taxes will go up, down, or stay about the same?" Up 37%, down 30%, stay the same 32%
These aren't great numbers. Trump's only really good number in this series of questions is on "The country’s southern border will be more secure, less secure, or stay about the same?" -- 56% say it will be more secure (14% less, 28% the same).

It's possible that Americans will be tolerant of Trump's inevitable failures because they simply don't expect government to work anymore. I hope his approval ratings plummet when he screws up, but those low expectations might save him, at least for a while.

*****

UPDATE: Some people are not reading the room.

Pennsylvania Sen. John Fetterman said Wednesday he’s open to Donald Trump’s idea that the U.S. acquire Greenland, telling reporters that it’s “strategically a smart thing.”

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— The Daily Beast (@thedailybeast.bsky.social) January 15, 2025 at 8:57 PM


It's understandable that some Democrats might want to move closer to Trump's positions on an issue or two. I don't like the headlong rush to embrace right-wing views on immigration, but I understand -- it's an issue on which the public seems to have moved to the right. But Greenland? Why? Buying Greenland is opposed by 76% of Democrats, 63% of independents, and even 37% of Republicans. What voters does Fetterman think he's winning over with this very unpopular idea?

Wednesday, January 15, 2025

DO REPUBLICANS BELIEVE HEGSETH'S TOXICITY IS A BUG OR A FEATURE?

Benjamin Wittes tells us that Trumpism is a "cult of unqualified authenticity," embodied in Donald Trump himself, but also in Pete Hegseth:
You can see in it so many of the central tenets of Trump’s approach to governance: the contempt for expertise and traditional qualifications; the insistence that the only real qualification is authenticity—and that authenticity is somehow wrapped up in performative masculinity; the belief that sounding tough and being tough are the same thing; and the conviction that complexity necessarily reduces to weakness.

It’s all right there in the nomination of a proudly unqualified individual who frames his lack of qualifications as qualification of a different, more authentic, variety.... And this idea has the apparently silent assent of all of the Republican members of the [Senate Armed Services] committee and a few, at least, enthusiastic takers.
I'm not sure there's a consistent worldview in the GOP. Marco Rubio's hearing is taking place as I type this, and he'll sail through his confirmation process because he is seen as traditionally qualified. Every Republican in the Senate will vote for both of them. But Republicans aren't shy about using one argument in a given situation and exactly the opposite argument in another situation.

Wittes can imagine circumstances under which Hegseth won't be confirmed:
In exchanges with Sens. Mazie Hirono (D-Hawaii), Tim Kaine (D-Va.) and Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.), Hegseth denied as “anonymous smears” any suggestion that he had shown up drunk for work or engaged in sexual misconduct....

Unless some evidence emerges that Hegseth’s denials are false, he will—I suspect—certainly be confirmed....

All bets are off, however, if Democrats produce the goods and show that not merely are the allegations true but that Hegseth was less than candid in his testimony.
No, Hegseth would survive that. I mean, sure -- if you had him on video unambiguously committing a violent act against a woman, maybe that would be enough to take him down. (I don't believe that even clear video evidence of day drinking in the past would matter, because Hegseth's narrative is that he's a changed man now, thanks to his current wife and Jesus.)

If Wittes means that testimony by a woman Hegseth has hurt could change the outcome, he should talk to Anita Hill, Christine Blasey Ford, and E. Jean Carroll. Even credible testimony of sexual misconduct, if it's from a woman and isn't accompanied by video, means nothing to most of the American public. Hegseth could easily survive that.

The Bulwark's Jonathan Last thinks Republicans are embracing vice as a virtue:
My theory is this:

Republicans embrace vice not because they believe that the accused Republican figures are innocent, but because they believe they are guilty. And so these voters exist in the hope that their champion will go on to hurt their enemies on their behalf.

After all: If a guy is willing to rape a woman, surely he can be counted on to visit destruction on Democrats, or woke generals, or whoever.

I don’t know. Maybe you have a better theory.
That may be true for some of them. For others, I think what's happened is that the GOP under Trump has become The Firm in John Grisham's novel -- you join, realize that its real purpose organized crime, and then you can't leave because no one who tries ever leaves alive. (In the case of the GOP, what's inevitable is political death. For instance, Senator Joni Ernst, who's up for re-election in two years, correctly fears the Elon Musk-funded primary challenge she would have faced if she hadn't agreed to support Hegseth.)

I'm sure most Senate Republicans would be happier with qualified nominees whose closets aren't full of skeletons. Republicans aren't strutting around boasting about Hegseth's toxic masculinity -- notice that they refused Democrats' request for a hearing of the customary length.

Republicans refused to allow for a second round of questions for Pete Hegseth. The entire hearing for the position of Secretary of Defense lasted just 4 hours and 15 minutes.

— Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1.bsky.social) January 14, 2025 at 1:50 PM


Which is why Democrats should have been pounding the table about Hegseth for weeks. They did a fine job in yesterday's hearings. But they missed the opportunity to define Hegseth.

An NPR/PBS/Marist poll conducted before the hearing suggests that Hegseth isn't widely known. Overall, he has a 19% favorable rating and a 26% unfavorable rating; 55% of respondents are unsure or have never heard of him.

Even among Republicans, his approval rating is only 37%, with 54% unsure. According to this survey, Elon Musk and Robert Kennedy Jr. poll in the 60s among Republicans, and at 37% and 40% overall, respectively.

It's possible that this poll has a liberal lean, but still: Hegseth appears not to have gone into his hearing as a MAGA superstar. He's been a Fox host, but not in prime time. He was vulnerable. But now he's almost certain to be confirmed.