House Republicans raised $35.2 million last night from a glitzy black tie dinner with President Donald Trump, money that will be used for the reelection campaigns of dozens of lawmakers.It's disheartening because I know how much power rich donors have in our political system. It's clear that the rich don't like President Trump's tariffs, and it's clear (to me at least) that donor pressure on congressional Republicans could help get a bill passed that would require congressional approval for new tariffs, with a backup plan of an impeachment threat if Trump won't comply, but it's also clear that rich Republican donors don't want to use the power they have, either out of fear, or because they're in the denial stage of grief and don't believe Trump is serious about a prolonged trade war, or because they know they're stinking rich and will be the last people in this society to suffer if -- when -- things go haywire.
A NOTUS story (free to read here) makes clear that rich donors aren't ready to use the power they have:
Some notable donors have openly questioned the president’s strategy, and a Republican strategist familiar with the party’s big donors said they were aware of one major contributor who temporarily suspended all political giving because of the economic uncertainty related to the tariffs.Just one major contributor has suspended donations -- temporarily!
Other longtime donors could do the same if economic conditions don’t improve, warned the source, who requested anonymity to discuss sensitive fundraising issues.And by "repercussions" they mean handing control of one or both houses of Congress to Democrats, which they feel would be a fate worse than death, and even a fate worse than control of Congress by a party that is complicit in the total destruction of the global economy. So even if additional big donors stop giving, they're likely to make up for it as elections get closer. So it will almost be as if they never suspended donations at all!
“It wouldn’t surprise me if a lot of them are reevaluating where things are at the moment,” the strategist said. “And it’s early off in the cycle that they can do that without any real repercussions.”
Clearly there's an element of fear at work here, as The Atlantic Jonathan Chait notes (free to read here):
A few days after “Liberation Day,” the MAGA financier Bill Ackman briefly succumbed to despair. “I don’t think this was foreseeable,” he posted on X. “I assumed economic rationality would be paramount. My bad.”Some of the most powerful men in the world are clearly terrified of Trump, Chait writes:
Among the MAGA faithful, this statement amounts to a shocking apostasy. And yet, even so, it was tightly circumscribed. Ackman wrote the entire passage in the passive voice—“this was foreseeable”; “rationality would be paramount”—omitting the need to identify any protagonist behind these disasters. Like so many Trump supporters, especially among the financial elite, he refused to believe that Trump would do the things he’d promised to do, precisely because they were so irrational, without pausing to ask if the very fact that Trump was promising to do crazy things was itself a reason to keep him out of power. Ackman’s little soliloquy ended, fittingly, on a note of personal contrition. The only person he could blame was himself.
Ackman, firmly grasping the euphemistic protocols necessary to jockey for influence in MAGA world, tried a number of gambits. He blamed corrupt advisers for manipulating the great leader: “Just figured out why @howardlutnick is indifferent to the stock market and the economy crashing. He and Cantor are long bonds. He profits when our economy implodes” (a charge he subsequently withdrew).Ackman wrote that surely the great and powerful Trump wouldn't engage in such an obvious act of destruction as this tariff war on his own -- it must be the fault of Howard Lutnick and his former firm, Cantor Fitzgerald, because they have big investments in bonds. (If that were true, it would have been a terrible gamble -- right now bonds are plunging along with stocks.)
Chait continues:
[Ackman] tried flattery: “An important characteristic of a great leader is a willingness to change course when the facts change or when the initial strategy is not working. We have seen Trump do this before. Two days in, however, it is much too early to form a view about his tariff strategy.”Weak. Weak. Come on, Bill. Try harder. Rally some of your rich friends.
When even these indirect complaints drew pushback, Ackman reaffirmed his unwavering loyalty: “Some have misinterpreted my thoughts on tariffs. I am totally supportive of President @realDonaldTrump using tariffs to eliminate tariffs and unfair trading practices of our trading partners, and to induce more investment and manufacturing in our country.”
But this is a collective action problem, and rich donors aren't much for collective action, unless they're colluding to fix prices or engage in some other practice more directly related to business.
Also, they'll barely suffer, while the rest of us are on the street selling pencils like it's 1932.
And it's hard for the rich to shake the belief that Republicans are always better for them. In normal times, they ignore the strong economic growth that usually comes when a Democrat is in the White House, because the improved cashflow to their businesses seems less important than the fact that Democrats want them to pay slightly higher tax rates and scrutinize their businesses and deals somewhat more closely. They see what Trump is actually doing and they still seem to believe it's not something he would do. And while they remain in this state of denial, we'll be badly hurt. But the leopard is coming for their faces, too.